WHY UGLY ENGLAND WILL BEAT UGLY ITALY – WITH BALOTELLI SENT OFF!

ROY HODGSON has done a magnificent job in his first five matches as England manager. He has won four and drawn one – and the wins over Sweden and Ukraine and the draw against the French amid the tension of Euro 2012 convince me that he can take England to their best Euro finish since 1996.

Back then, of course, England, under Terry Venables made the semis – only to lose, inevitably, on penalties to the Germans. Fast forward to now, and England will face either Germany or Greece in the semis if they beat Italy on Sunday.

And I don’t really see why Roy’s boys should not beat the Italians. Let’s be honest, both England and Italy are ugly, functional teams to watch. Both defend brilliantly and hit you on the counter attack, both have players full of passion and determination. Watch the Italians sing their national anthem before the match against England and you’ll know exactly what I mean. No other team in world football are so passionate when it comes to belting out the words to their national tune. 

I can see both teams cancelling each other out in defence and midfield but I do feel that England have the edge in attack and in the quality of the subs they can bring on from the bench. Italy have Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano up front while England have Wayne Rooney and Danny Welbeck. But we also have the ingenuity of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Theo Walcott and the brute strength of Andy Carroll and the diminuitive potency of Jermain Defoe to come on from the bench. The Italians have no such permutations.

So I can see England winning an ugly match against a similarly ugly team with a goal from one of those subs late on. I can also see them getting a lucky break with Balotelli blowing a fuse. It’s high odds that he’ll be taking an early bath on Sunday – especially if John Terry winds him up and gets him to lash out. We saw the two sides of Balotelli against the Croatians. Coming on as a sub, he scored a sublime goal and then went and spoilt it by shouting abuse at his manager for not playing him from the start. In terms of quality, Balotelli has it in him to be one of the top five players in the world, but his temperament is questionable, to put it lightly.

The aforementioned John Terry has proved me wrong. He has had a fine tournament, apart from the odd occasion when he has looked laboured, and has justified Hodgson’s faith in him.

England’s star man so far has been the captain Steven Gerrard, who is finally showing his Liverpool form in an England shirt. That is also down to the efforts of Scott Parker, a play who does the dirty work for Stevie G that Frank Lampard never wanted to do. Lampard and Gerrard were always the star duo for England in tournaments but never worked well enough together. With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy to now see that only one could be the star man; with whichever one chosen needing a workhorse like Parker to make them shine.

Rooney was off the pace and off form against Ukraine. His face and neck looked bloated and he is surely overweight and unfit. I would have brought on Carroll for him after 70 minutes, but Hodgson decided to give him a long run so that he could get some match time under his belt. You or I could have headed home the Rooney goal, so Wayne has a lot of work to do to convince us he should be in the starting line-up. I also still have my doubts about Danny Welbeck; he tends to drift in and out of games and seems a bit fragile. I would start with Rooney and Carroll against the Italians – let big Andy give them a bruising and a battering to wear them down.

Who will England play if they do make the semis? Well, on paper you would have to say the Germans. But this is a tournament that has thrown up some big surprises – Russia and Holland eliminated early on and Sweden beating France when everyone thought they were nailed-on losers being prime examples – so I am not so sure. The Greeks are like England; stubborn and ugly and boy do they have a major motive to beat the Germans. Nothing would give the Greek nation more delight than seeing them eliminate the country they believe want to tell them what to do, effectively running their economy from Berlin, in the current Eurozone crisis.

So don’t be surprised if that match turns up at least a battling fight by Greece and even extra time - or maybe even a win for the Greeks.

Of the rest, Spain are not the team they were. They are missing David Villa and their defence looks rocky. I can easily see Portugal beating them in the semis, assuming they manage to get past the dogged French.

The tournament is shaping up for a fab finale and it’s great that England are still in the mix. As former England boss Graham Taylor once famously said, ‘Sit back, put yer feet up – and watch us win it!’ Not totally sure about that...but we’re certainly in with a shout…

FRANK WORRALL

(For more information on Frank and his bestselling sports books, see www.frankworrall.com)

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(For more information on Frank and his bestselling sports books, see www.frankworrall.com)